---
title: "From Globalisation to Localisation | Quarterly Newsletter - September 2026 / Q2 FY27"
period: "Q2 FY27"
published: 2026-10-26
modified: 2026-10-26
url: https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/september-2026
markdown: https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/september-2026.md
authors: ["Pawan Bharaddia", "Ssuneet Kabra"]
publisher: "Equitree Capital Advisors Private Limited"
language: en-IN
---

# From Globalisation to Localisation

Quarterly Newsletter, September 2026 / Q2 FY27. Published 26 October 2026 by Equitree Capital. About 16 minutes to read. Web version: https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/september-2026

> Quarterly Newsletter published 26 October 2026. Figures are as of the dates stated in the letter and are not updated after publication.
> Performance data has not been verified by SEBI. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
> Current performance, with its as-of date and benchmark: https://equitreecapital.com/pms
> Performance relative to other portfolio managers in the same strategy: APMI, https://www.apmiindia.org/apmi/IaInsight.htm?IAID=407
> Not investment advice, an offer or a solicitation.

> The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.
>
> Peter Lynch

Dear Investors,

The September quarter tested patience. The BSE 500 TRI fell 3.6% over the three months and 5.6% in September alone, as conflict in the Middle East, expensive oil, US tariffs and higher global rates weighed on sentiment. India’s crude basket, at US$63 a barrel in January, had climbed to US$116 by September.[7] Our portfolio fell 1.5% over the quarter, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 2.0%. In September, when both indices fell, the portfolio rose 1.2%.[1]

The quarter also brought a milestone for the firm. Emerging Opportunities I has closed to new investment, and we opened Equitree Emerging Opportunities II in September. The same research process and the same discipline run across both.

In this letter we step back from the quarter. **The world is moving from globalisation to localisation, but the shift does not reward every Indian manufacturer.** It rewards the ones that already have what buyers cannot easily replace: approvals, technology and capacity. We explain where the shift is playing out, how Indian companies are capturing it, how our portfolio is positioned, and what could go wrong.

## Our Performance

[Chart: The Last Two Years. Value of ₹100 invested on 30 September 2024, month-end. Drawn on the web page: https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/september-2026#performance]

Series: Emerging Opportunities I, NIFTY Smallcap 100, S&P BSE 500 TRI.

TWRR, net of fees and expenses. Source: Nuvama Custodial Services, Equitree Capital.[1]

| Period | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 5Y | 7Y |
| --- | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: | :---: |
| Emerging Opportunities I | 1.19 | -1.45 | 32.11 | -2.43 | -0.91 | 18.93 | 21.65 | 26.14 |
| S&P BSE 500 TRI | -5.57 | -3.59 | 8.07 | -2.33 | -3.93 | 9.20 | 8.91 | 14.69 |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 | -3.44 | 2.03 | 26.58 | 9.58 | 0.17 | 14.71 | 12.06 | 19.51 |
| Relative to benchmark | 6.76 | 2.14 | 24.04 | -0.10 | 3.02 | 9.73 | 12.74 | 11.45 |

Emerging Opportunities I, as of 30 September 2026. Returns are computed on a TWRR basis, net of fees and expenses, and are not verified by SEBI. Periods over one year are annualised. Individual portfolio performance may vary.[1]

Over three, five and seven years the portfolio is ahead of both indices, and of the BSE 500 TRI by 9.7–12.7 percentage points a year. Over six months it is ahead of both, at 32.1% against 8.1% and 26.6%.[1]

The one-year number is where we have lagged, as we discussed in our September investor webinar. We are level with the BSE 500 TRI but about 12 percentage points behind the Nifty Smallcap 100, which rose in a narrow rally. Small companies fell sharply from October to March and then recovered, and our portfolio fell further on the way down. **Earnings in our book grew more slowly than we expected, and the market paid less for them.** From April to June the portfolio rose 34%, against 24% for the small-cap index, and we booked profits in stocks that ran up in the rebound. Our companies’ profits grew 15% in the June quarter, close to 20% excluding two holdings.[1]

> **Why Not a Stop-Loss?:** A falling price is a reason to look at a business again, not by itself a reason to sell it. In small companies, prices can fall far more than the business does, and a fixed stop-loss would have sold us out near the March lows. We sell when the thesis breaks, when we lose confidence in management, or when a stock becomes expensive for its growth (a PEG above 2).

### The Market Backdrop

Most of the pressure came from abroad. Brent was close to US$110 a barrel. The US Federal Reserve raised rates on 16 September, its first increase since 2023, and on 7 October the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50%, with wholesale inflation at 11.39%. Foreign investors sold about ₹35,900 cr of Indian equities in September, and the rupee touched record lows.[12]

The domestic economy has not changed. GDP grew 7.8% in the June quarter,[2] and small-company profits grew about 22% while their prices fell, as our [Q1 FY27 operating update](https://equitreecapital.com/insights/operating-updates/q1-fy27) set out. If profits hold, prices have room to catch up with them, though nothing says when. Markets have stayed volatile in October, and we will report the month in our next update.

Beneath the quarter’s volatility, a slower shift is driving our companies’ earnings. The rest of this letter follows it from world trade to the businesses we own.

## 01. Two Engines of Growth

Indian manufacturers are being pulled by two engines at the same time. The first is the home market. The IMF expects India to grow about 7.4% in 2026, faster than China, the US or Europe.[2] A new Indian plant can fill its first lines at home, and that scale is what lets it compete on cost abroad.

[Chart: GDP Growth Forecast, 2026. IMF real GDP growth forecast, 2026 (%). Drawn on the web page: https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/september-2026#two-engines]

Series: Real GDP growth, 2026F.

Source: IMF WEO, Oct 2026. India on a calendar-year basis; 7.0% for FY27.[2]

The second engine is the rest of the world, which no longer buys on price alone. For three decades the cheapest supplier won. Since COVID and the wars that followed, buyers have paid for reliability and a second source. China’s share of US goods imports has fallen from 21.6% in 2017 to 7.5% in January–August 2026, while US imports from India have more than doubled.[3]

The two engines reinforce each other. Scale at home makes an Indian plant cost-competitive, and orders from abroad fill it. The pull from abroad is strongest where buyers depend most on China, so we start there.

## 02. China+1

Where China makes more than half the world’s supply, a buyer has no fallback. These are the segments where customers are now paying to build one, and where Indian companies are showing up.

| Segment | China’s share | Where India stands |
| --- | :---: | --- |
| Castings | Largest by far | Already the second source: India is #2 at ~15 million tonnes (FY24). |
| Solar: polysilicon to modules | >80% at every stage | Modules at scale (~228 GW listed); cells and wafers are the next rung. |
| Shipbuilding (new orders) | 69% (2025, MIIT) | Indian yards have started winning European orders. |
| Battery cells | >80% | Early: the first cell plants are starting up, against a 50 GWh incentive target. |
| Rare-earth magnets | 94% | Motor, defence and electronics makers need a non-China source; India has little yet. |

Sources: IEA; China MIIT; Institute of Indian Foundrymen; MNRE ALMM; company filings. The shares use different measures and years, so they are not directly comparable.[4]

The table is ordered by how far India has got. Being needed as a second source is not the same as being qualified as one. Our holdings sit mainly in castings, where Indian suppliers are already approved and shipping, with one, Shakti Pumps, building into solar cells (Section 06). Some of these buyers are European, and Europe has pressures of its own.

## 03. Europe+1

China+1 is about buyers. Europe+1 is about sellers. Europe still owns the technology, the certifications and the customers. Parts of its industry are short of people to run the factories and of affordable energy to power them. We first wrote about this in our [September 2022 letter](https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/september-2022).

| Indicator | Value | What it means |
| --- | :---: | --- |
| EU median age | 44.9 (2025), up 2.1 years in a decade | The workforce is ageing faster than it is replaced. |
| Workers in Germany reaching retirement age by 2039 | 13.4 million (~31% of the 2024 labour force) | Skilled shop-floor labour gets scarce and dear. |
| German SME owners aged 55+ | 57% (20% two decades ago) | The founders of the Mittelstand are retiring. |
| German SMEs seeking a successor by 2029 | 545,000, of which 42% are open to an outside buyer | Businesses, brands and approvals will change hands. |

Sources: Eurostat; Destatis; KfW Research. The figures show succession needs, not businesses available to buy.[5]

[Chart: Gas Prices: Europe and the US. Natural gas, US$/MMBtu, annual average. Drawn on the web page: https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/september-2026#europe-plus-one]

Series: Europe (TTF-linked), US (Henry Hub).

Source: World Bank Pink Sheet (Oct 2026). 2026 is January–September, when Europe paid 4.8x the US price.[5]

Russia’s share of EU gas imports fell from about 45% in 2021 to about 13% in 2025, and costlier US LNG filled the gap. European gas averaged about US$25/MMBtu in September 2026, against about US$3 in the US (4.8x on average over January–September). A gap that size weighs on where energy-intensive plants such as foundries, forges and chemical units are built next: about 40% of German industrial firms, and 60% of large ones, are weighing or making cuts at home or moves abroad. These are intentions, not relocations, and they become an opportunity only when an Indian company wins the work.[5]

Owners without successors, plants squeezed by gas costs and customers who still want the product are pushing European manufacturing towards outsourcing, joint ventures and sales, and India is the partner with scale, engineers and a fast-growing home market.

### Indian Companies, European Partners

Indian companies are already doing these deals. By late October 2025, Indian acquisitions in Europe had reached US$5.7bn, more than in any full year since 2020.[6] The deals take three forms: contracts, joint ventures and acquisitions.

| Company | European partner | What moved to India | In numbers |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Azad Engineering<br>*Contract · Aerospace* | Siemens Energy (DE); Rolls-Royce (UK) | Turbine blades, vanes and defence aero-engine parts | €90.1mn, 6-year contract |
| Jupiter Wagons<br>*Contract · Rail* | Tatravagonka (SK) | 10-year wheelset export deal from an Odisha plant now being built | ~50,000 wheelsets a year targeted, from end-2027 |
| Talbros Automotive<br>*JV · Auto parts* | Marelli (IT), JV | Suspension arms for a European OEM’s EV and ICE models | ~₹1,000 cr over 8 years |
| VST Tillers<br>*JV · Farm machinery* | Zetor (CZ) | Zetor ends 80 years of assembly in Brno; new ranges to be built in the India JV | ~5,000 tractor exports a year targeted within five years |
| PTC Industries<br>*Acquisition · Aerospace* | Safran (FR); Trac Precision (UK) | LEAP engine castings for Safran; bought Trac, a Rolls-Royce and Safran supplier | Trac: ₹71 cr income in Q1 FY27 |
| Sigma Advanced Systems<br>*Acquisition · Aerospace* | Rolls-Royce (UK) | Bought UK suppliers Nasmyth and Bromford | ~£300mn (7-year) + ~£125mn long-term agreements |
| Hind Rectifiers<br>*Acquisition · Electrical* | BeLink Solutions (FR) | Bought a French EMS and robotics business | €1mn, plus €2mn of fresh capital; €13mn revenue projected |

Sources: company filings and releases; Bloomberg. Hind Rectifiers’ French subsidiary is 34% owned by its promoter group. The securities are quoted as examples and not as recommendations. Of these, only Talbros Automotive is held by Equitree’s clients.[6]

Aerospace features often because an engine or airframe part can take years to qualify. A contract, joint venture or small acquisition hands an Indian company approved-supplier status, certifications and customers in one step. A contract gives visibility, but only if the company can deliver it at a profit, and that is what we check.

## 04. What India Still Imports

Localisation also matters at home. India imported US$775bn of goods in FY26, and six categories made up more than half of it.[7] The table sets out those six and what each means for us.

| Category | FY26<br>(US$ bn) | Change<br>y/y | Domestic position | Investment read |
| --- | :---: | :---: | --- | --- |
| Crude oil and products | 173.9 | -6.4% | 88.7% of crude requirement imported | Underground, not in a factory. |
| Electronic goods | 116.2 | +17.7% | Exports of US$48.0bn | Phones are exported; the chips inside are still imported. |
| Gold and silver | 84.0 | +33.7% | RBI holds 880.5 tonnes of gold | A savings habit, not a manufacturing gap. |
| Organic and inorganic chemicals | 27.9 | -1.8% | China the largest supplier | A direct opening for Indian chemical makers. |
| Auto components | 25.4 | +13.0% | Exports of US$24.0bn; China 36% of imports | The next rung: parts carmakers still import. |
| Fertilisers | 16.4 | +60.7% | Imported share: urea 26%, DAP 61%, potash ~100% | New domestic capacity is coming in DAP and urea. |

Sources: Commerce Ministry; ACMA; RBI; PPAC; Department of Fertilizers. Some shares and growth rates are Equitree calculations.[7]

The table splits the bill in two. Crude, gold and potash are gaps no factory can close quickly. Electronics, chemicals and auto parts are gaps capable Indian manufacturers are already closing, though imports of electronics and auto parts are still rising. That is where we look.

### The Cost of Dependence

Crude is the largest item on the bill, and 2026 showed what that dependence costs. The chart tracks India’s crude basket month by month.

[Chart: India’s Crude Basket in 2026. US$/barrel, monthly average. Drawn on the web page: https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/september-2026#indias-own-dependencies]

Series: Indian crude basket.

Sources: PPAC, FIPI, Equitree research. *October is to 13 October.[7]

India produces only about a tenth of the crude it uses. After Hormuz was disrupted in late February, the basket nearly doubled in three months, eased to US$82 in July and was back at US$116 in September. About 60% of India’s LPG is imported, which is why our [March 2026 letter](https://equitreecapital.com/insights/newsletters/march-2026) called it the weakest energy link; by June a cylinder cost above ₹1,600 to supply, while Delhi households paid ₹942. Petrol and diesel rose about 8% in May. The rest was borne by oil companies (losses of ~₹530 cr a day by September, per ICRA), excise and the fertiliser budget. Most of the cost of dependence showed up on balance sheets rather than at the pump.[7]

> Just like we are dependent on the world for energy, it is the misfortune of the country that we have to depend on the world for fertilizers as well.
>
> Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Independence Day address, 15 August 2025[8]

The statement is being followed by capacity. India added 7.6 million tonnes of urea capacity from six plants between FY15 and FY24, a coal-to-urea plant at Talcher is targeted for end-2027, and a new urea policy proposes about nine more gas-based plants. Private companies are localising the DAP chain too, among them Shree Pushkar, one of our holdings, which is investing ₹350 cr in DAP and NPK capacity (Section 06).[8]

> **What This Means for Us:** We do not invest where India is structurally short of a raw material, such as crude, potash and gold. **We invest where the constraint is capacity, technology or approvals:** components, castings, specialty chemicals, electrical equipment. Those are gaps a well-run Indian company can close, and its profits compound as it does. Our one energy holding, Hindustan Oil Exploration, is a different case: a domestic producer whose crude is priced off international benchmarks, so a costly dependence for India is revenue for it.

## 05. Trade Deals, and Keeping China Out

Policy is now working on both fronts. By our count India has signed or concluded seven trade agreements since 2022, more than in the whole of the previous decade. Each opens a richer market to Indian factories, and each comes with rules of origin that reward real manufacturing in India rather than re-labelling.

**Trade Agreements Since 2022**

- 1 May 2022: UAE (In force)
- 29 Dec 2022: Australia (In force)
- 1 Oct 2025: EFTA (In force)
- 27 Jan 2026: European Union (Concluded, not yet signed)
- 1 Jun 2026: Oman (In force)
- 15 Jul 2026: United Kingdom (In force)
- 20 Oct 2026: New Zealand (In force)

Dates are entry into force, except the EU, where talks concluded on 27 January 2026 and signing is planned for December 2026. Sources: Ministry of Commerce, PIB.[9]

Two matter most to our companies. The UK agreement, in force since 15 July, gives zero duty on about 99% of UK tariff lines, and S.P. Apparels already ships under it. The EU agreement, concluded in January, offers preferential access on 97% of tariff lines once it is signed and ratified, and Europe is where most of the Section 03 partners sit. The US, our largest export market, is still unsettled: after the US Supreme Court struck down the reciprocal tariffs, a 10% duty applies for now.[9]

### When China Is Shut Out

Tariffs make Chinese goods more expensive; exclusion rules make them unavailable. Where a Chinese supplier is barred outright, price stops deciding the winner. These are the cleanest openings for Indian makers, and each comes with a catch.

| Product | The rule | Who steps in | The catch |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Solar cells | Only cells on the approved list qualify for most projects from Jun 2026; wafers from Jun 2028 | 37.8 GW of Indian cell capacity listed (8 Oct 2026); Premier Energies commissioned a 7 GW cell plant in Sep 2026 | Module imports fell 54% in FY26 but cell imports nearly doubled. Dependence moves up the chain. |
| CCTV | Chip and firmware origin disclosed and tested; uncertified cameras barred from sale since Apr 2026 | Aditya Infotech (CP Plus): 20.8% of the organised market (FY25) | Dahua products were 24.7% of Aditya’s FY25 revenue. The rule cuts both ways. |
| Telecom gear | Operators may install only “trusted source” products (since Jun 2021) | Tejas Networks: ₹7,492 cr RAN order for BSNL via TCS (2023) | One dominant buyer: Tejas lost ₹202 cr in Q1 FY27. |
| Drones | Imports of finished drones banned since Feb 2022 | ideaForge: FY26 revenue ₹226 cr | Components are still imported; Q1 FY27 revenue was half of Q4 FY26’s. |

Sources: MNRE; Commerce Ministry; MeitY; DoT; DGFT; Department of Expenditure; company filings; Business Standard; Reuters. The securities are quoted as examples and not as recommendations.[9]

Protection can win an Indian supplier the order while it still relies on imported parts or one dominant buyer. That is why we look for businesses protected by approvals and qualification, not by a rule that can change.

India is closing security-sensitive products to China but opening the door to its capital. Since March 2026, investors from land-border countries can take non-controlling stakes of up to 10% through the automatic route, subject to conditions, and proposals in specified manufacturing activities are to get a decision within 60 days. Our view is that the likely winner in electronics is an Indian-controlled company with a Chinese technology partner.[9]

## 06. Our Portfolio

We play the theme three ways: China+1 (exporters taking share from China), Europe+1 (partners to European technology and customers) and import substitution (making in India what India buys abroad). We look for companies where the theme can carry profits at about 20% a year for many years, bought at sensible valuations. For eight of our holdings, the table sets out why each fits and what has to happen next.

| Company | Why it fits | What has to happen next |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Talbros Automotive<br>*Europe+1* | Gaskets, heat shields and chassis parts; a ~₹1,000 cr European order through its Marelli JV | New multi-year orders start in FY27 |
| Shree Pushkar Chemicals<br>*Import substitution* | Dye intermediates and fertiliser, in a market long supplied by China | Commission the DAP/NPK plant |
| S.P. Apparels<br>*China+1* | Children’s knitwear for UK retailers | Grow UK orders now the trade deal is live |
| Steelcast<br>*China+1* | Steel castings for global mining and earthmoving makers | Build the new foundry, due within two years |
| Stove Kraft<br>*Exports* | Pigeon and Gilma kitchen appliances; starting to supply IKEA | Scale up IKEA supplies |
| Shakti Pumps<br>*Import substitution* | Solar pumps and motors made in India; building a solar cell and module plant | Margins recover; module line due Sep 2027 |
| HBL Engineering<br>*Import substitution* | Kavach train-collision avoidance, defence fuzes and batteries, all once imported | Fuzes and marine become the next legs after Kavach |
| Hindustan Oil Exploration<br>*Energy security* | Domestic oil and gas in a country that imports most of its crude | Settle the HPCL dispute; restore gas evacuation at Dirok |

Sources: company filings and investor presentations; ICRA. The securities are quoted as examples and not as recommendations; Equitree’s clients hold them.[10]

The holdings fall into three groups. Talbros and Shree Pushkar have qualified with customers and moved to repeat orders, and their profits have roughly doubled over FY23–26. S.P. Apparels, Steelcast and Stove Kraft are midway through expansions whose earnings are still to come. HBL and Shakti Pumps depend on the timing of large orders and government schemes, so their profits move in steps. Hindustan Oil Exploration sits apart, as our one domestic energy holding. We size each position to match how its earnings are likely to arrive.

### Shakti Pumps: Margins, Not Demand

We have owned Shakti Pumps for about eight years, and several of you have asked about it. Its profits have been weak for several quarters. In the June quarter revenue rose 38% to a record ₹859 cr and solar pump installations rose 58%, but the EBITDA margin fell to 9.6% from 23.1% and profit fell 47% to ₹52 cr.[10] The problem is margins, not demand.  
• **Why margins fell.** Input costs rose sharply, some orders being delivered were priced in older tenders, and while the market waits for the next phase of the KUSUM scheme, most installations have come from Maharashtra, where prices are lower.  
• **Signs of a floor.** Margins held steady from the March quarter, and profit rose about 35% quarter on quarter. When the first KUSUM scheme reset its benchmark prices to reflect costs, margins recovered; whether the next phase does the same is what we are watching. The current scheme has been extended to March 2027, so installations continue meanwhile.  
• **Demand.** Close to one crore farmers have applied for solar pumps, the order book is about ₹1,000 cr, and farmers choose the supplier, which favours a trusted brand. New lines in EV motors, rooftop solar and exports are adding to it.  
What we are watching: the launch and pricing of the next KUSUM phase, the start of module production, and receivables returning to normal.

## 07. Risks

The main risks to this view, and the first signs we would look for, are set out below.  
• **Oil stays above US$100 into 2027.** Inputs and freight cost more for our manufacturers. We would see it first in Q3 and Q4 FY27 margins.  
• **China cuts prices to clear surplus capacity.** Import substitutes lose margin. Watch landed prices and new anti-dumping cases.  
• **US trade terms worsen.** Fewer orders reach our customers’ customers. Watch the order books of US-facing clients.  
• **Expansions run late.** Earnings arrive later than we expect. Watch commissioning dates and utilisation.  
• **The theme gets crowded.** Multiples fall if growth disappoints. Watch valuations against their own history.  
• **Flows reverse.** Foreign selling and heavy IPO supply hit small companies hardest. Watch FPI flows and the IPO calendar.

## 08. Outlook

After the recovery, earnings will matter most from here. Results for the September quarter are coming in now, the first to carry the full cost of expensive crude, a weaker rupee and higher rates. We will judge each company on three things: whether it passes on higher costs, whether new plants start on time, and whether orders turn into profitable revenue.

> **In Focus:** On our internal estimates as on 30 September 2026: **about 20% earnings growth across the portfolio in FY27, at about 15x FY27 earnings (a PEG ratio of about 0.75)**, against the portfolio’s own ten-year median of 16.4x, with a weighted debt-to-equity of 0.23.[1]

These are estimates, not an indication of returns. Crude remains the risk we watch most closely, and our base case is that the stress eases (Section 07).

### A Broad Correction

If your portfolio is below its recent high, you are in wide company. Among Indian companies worth ₹1,000–5,000 cr, where most of our holdings sit, 83% have fallen at least 20% from their all-time high.[13] The fall has been broad, and it has come largely from price rather than from profits.

Markets move in cycles, and we have invested through several drawdowns like this one. Each time, the businesses that kept growing their earnings came through stronger. Periods like this are when the groundwork for the next phase of wealth creation is laid. **Our job is to find businesses with strong models, long growth runways and ethical promoters, buy them at sensible prices, and stay invested through the cycle.**

### Emerging Opportunities II

Emerging Opportunities I is closed to new investment and continues to be managed as before. We have opened **Equitree Emerging Opportunities II**, a separate scheme that is now accepting investments. It follows the same philosophy, research process and risk framework, and is building a concentrated portfolio of 12 to 15 businesses, some new and some shared with the first scheme where we still have room to buy. New capital is invested in stages. If you would like to know more, [talk to us](https://equitreecapital.com/contact).

Thank you for your trust through a volatile year.

With warm regards,

Team Equitree

- Pawan Bharaddia, Co-Founder & CIO (pawan.b@equitreecapital.com)
- Ssuneet Kabra, Co-Founder & CEO (skabra@equitreecapital.com)

## Sources

1. Equitree Capital.
2. IMF, World Economic Outlook (Oct 2026); MoSPI, Q1 FY27 GDP estimates (Aug 2026).
3. US Census Bureau, US trade in goods by country (2017–Aug 2026).
4. IEA; China MIIT; Institute of Indian Foundrymen; MNRE (2026).
5. Eurostat; Destatis; KfW Research; World Bank Pink Sheet (Oct 2026); DIHK (Jul 2026).
6. Company filings and releases; Bloomberg (Oct 2025).
7. Ministry of Commerce (Jun 2026); RBI; PPAC; ACMA; MoPNG; ICRA (Sep 2026).
8. PIB; Parliament replies (2024–26); company filings.
9. Ministry of Commerce; PIB; MNRE; MeitY; DoT; DGFT; DPIIT; company filings; Reuters.
10. Company results, presentations and call transcripts (2023–26); ICRA.
11. Ministry of Commerce, foreign trade data (Oct 2026).
12. NSE Indices; US Federal Reserve; RBI; NSDL (Sep–Oct 2026).
13. Listed-company price data, as of early October 2026.

## Disclaimer

This newsletter is prepared by Equitree Capital for informational purposes only and is directed at existing investors of its Portfolio Management Services. It does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The securities named are quoted as examples and not as recommendations. Equitree’s clients hold the securities named in Section 06 and Talbros Automotive in Section 03.

Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and is not a guarantee of future returns. Returns are computed on a TWRR basis, include cash and are net of all fees and expenses. Performance related information provided herein is not verified by SEBI. Your portfolio’s performance may differ because of the timing of inflows and outflows and differences in portfolio composition. For relative performance against other portfolio managers in the Equity strategy, see [APMI](https://www.apmiindia.org). Statements about the future, including estimates of earnings and valuations, reflect our views as on the date of this letter and may not materialise. Equitree does not offer assured or indicative returns.

Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Investments in small- and micro-cap equities carry higher volatility, liquidity, and business-specific risks, including the possible loss of principal. Please read the Disclosure Document carefully before investing. Equitree Capital is a SEBI-registered Portfolio Manager (INP000005777). Recipients should consult their independent financial, legal, and tax advisors before making any investment decisions.

This document is private and confidential. It may not be reproduced, redistributed, or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Equitree Capital.